R02 · JUNCTION · LAYER 1 OF 15 (DERIVED)Macro Migration
Can people work independently yet?
READY_UNSCORED ENTRY
THE REGISTERED QUESTION
How much productive autonomy is available today?
LEVEL Gate · CONFIDENCE NOT_ASSESSED · DEFINITION DEFINED
FALSIFIABLE CLAIM
For preregistered high-skill tasks, AI and local-model tools will reduce median time, monetary cost, and required institutional intermediation needed to produce and deliver equivalent-quality output.
STRENGTHENS IF
Repeated task benchmarks show quality-adjusted time/cost reductions and greater independent completion.
FRAMEWORK ANCHOR
Ch. 10, NDLM; Ch. 26, AI as Interface Layer
REQUIRES: —
FEEDS: MAC-EXIT-002 READY_UNSCORED ↓ TRUNK · MAC-EXIT-004 METHOD_REQUIRED
FEEDS: MAC-EXIT-002 READY_UNSCORED ↓ TRUNK · MAC-EXIT-004 METHOD_REQUIRED
GATED BY 0 BLOCKED ANCESTORS
MECHANISM · FROM THE BOOK · NOT MEASURED — B
OBJ-MONETARY-COMPETITION-FRAMEWORK · THE SUM-TOTAL COST TABLE
OBJ-MONEY-UNDER-COMPETITION · MONOPOLY MONEY VERSUS MARKET MONEY
BOUND METRICS · 5
M-EXIT-AI-ADOPTIONBusiness AI use rateOBSERVED % of businesses
M-EXIT-AI-COSTQuality-adjusted AI task-cost reductionESTIMATED % reduction
M-EXIT-AI-TIMEQuality-adjusted AI task-time reductionESTIMATED % reduction
M-EXIT-LOCAL-GAPLocal-to-frontier capability gapESTIMATED benchmark points
M-EXIT-LOCAL-MEMMemory required for local capability thresholdOBSERVED GB RAM/VRAM
ANSWER NO IF
Gains disappear under quality controls, remain laboratory-only, or require more centralized dependency.