How much productive autonomy is available today? — THE DESK

R02 · JUNCTION · LAYER 1 OF 15 (DERIVED)Macro Migration

Can people work independently yet?

READY_UNSCORED ENTRY

☐ WATCH THIS CLAIM PINS IT TO YOUR LANDING STRIP · STATES ONLY — STORED IN YOUR BROWSER

REGISTERED STRUCTURE · DRAWN FROM THE FROZEN FILES

THE REGISTERED QUESTION

How much productive autonomy is available today?

LEVEL Gate · CONFIDENCE NOT_ASSESSED · DEFINITION DEFINED

FALSIFIABLE CLAIM

For preregistered high-skill tasks, AI and local-model tools will reduce median time, monetary cost, and required institutional intermediation needed to produce and deliver equivalent-quality output.

STRENGTHENS IF

Repeated task benchmarks show quality-adjusted time/cost reductions and greater independent completion.

FRAMEWORK ANCHOR

Ch. 10, NDLM; Ch. 26, AI as Interface Layer

REQUIRES: —
FEEDS: MAC-EXIT-002 READY_UNSCORED ↓ TRUNK · MAC-EXIT-004 METHOD_REQUIRED

GATED BY 0 BLOCKED ANCESTORS

MECHANISM · FROM THE BOOK · NOT MEASURED — B

OBJ-MONETARY-COMPETITION-FRAMEWORK · THE SUM-TOTAL COST TABLE OBJ-MONEY-UNDER-COMPETITION · MONOPOLY MONEY VERSUS MARKET MONEY

BOUND METRICS · 5

EACH CHIP NAMES THE METRIC’S REGISTERED EPISTEMIC CLASS — HOW IT WOULD BE READ, NOT A READING. ZERO READINGS EXIST YET.

M-EXIT-AI-ADOPTIONBusiness AI use rateOBSERVED % of businesses M-EXIT-AI-COSTQuality-adjusted AI task-cost reductionESTIMATED % reduction M-EXIT-AI-TIMEQuality-adjusted AI task-time reductionESTIMATED % reduction M-EXIT-LOCAL-GAPLocal-to-frontier capability gapESTIMATED benchmark points M-EXIT-LOCAL-MEMMemory required for local capability thresholdOBSERVED GB RAM/VRAM

ANSWER NO IF

Gains disappear under quality controls, remain laboratory-only, or require more centralized dependency.