P(multi-rail | success) — THE DESK

DATUM · M-VAL-P-MULTI · ValuationPhase 2

P(multi-rail | success)

probability

CADENCE Methodology release

GAUGE FRAME

0 PUBLIC OBSERVATIONS · MISSING DATA IS NOT A ZERONO READING · 0 → 1.0SETTLEMENT BUNDLE NOT PROJECTED

UNITprobability

CADENCEMethodology release

SOURCEINTERNAL-METHOD

EPISTEMICSCENARIO

STRENGTHENS IFBitcoin constraint produces durable sovereign substitution.

WEAKENS IFOverflow is fully internalized or no second rail retains.

MVP TIERPhase 2

BOUND CLAIMS · 1

N · NUMERIC LENS — DEFINITION, DIRECTION, HISTORY

✓ CLAIMS 7e655a43… · AS OF 2026-08-02