R05 · JUNCTION · LAYER 13 OF 15 (DERIVED)Valuation
Which way did the odds move?
METHOD_REQUIRED
THE REGISTERED QUESTION
Which probability branch did this evidence actually update?
LEVEL Rule · CONFIDENCE NOT_ASSESSED · DEFINITION DEFINED
FALSIFIABLE CLAIM
Repeated routing, unique retention, coordination gravity, and velocity compression will increase the registered conditional probability of Litecoin becoming the second rail; scattering, inadequacy, or permanent high velocity will reduce it.
STRENGTHENS IF
Evidence maps to its preregistered conditional branch and survives sensitivity tests.
FRAMEWORK ANCHOR
Ch. 15 probability tree
REQUIRES: BTC-LIM-005 BLOCKED · LTC-SECOND-001 BLOCKED · VAL-HOLD-001 BLOCKED
FEEDS: —
FEEDS: —
GATED BY 6 BLOCKED ANCESTORS
BLOCKING FRONTIER · 3
VAL-HOLD-001Is it held, not just passed through?BLOCKED
LTC-SECOND-001Has Litecoin become the second Bitcoin?BLOCKED
BTC-LIM-005What do people do when it's too costly?BLOCKED
NEAREST LEVER · VAL-HOLD-001 — CLEARING IT DROPS THIS TO GATED BY 5
REGISTERED TERMINUS — THIS QUESTION FEEDS NOTHING DOWNSTREAM
MECHANISM · FROM THE BOOK · NOT MEASURED — B
OBJ-SETTLEMENT-FILTERS · THE REGISTERED FILTERS
OBJ-VALUATION-HYPOTHETICAL · HOW THE BASE SCALES — SETTLEMENT AND HOLDING AS MULTIPLIERS
BOUND METRICS · 3
M-VAL-P-LTCP(Litecoin second | multi-rail)SCENARIO probability
M-VAL-P-MULTIP(multi-rail | success)SCENARIO probability
M-VAL-P-SUCCESSP(permissionless money succeeds)SCENARIO probability
ANSWER NO IF
Price or sentiment is allowed to upgrade unrelated probability branches, or qualifying evidence does not change the branch.