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P(permissionless money succeeds) — THE DESK

DATUM · M-VAL-P-SUCCESS · ValuationPhase 2

P(permissionless money succeeds)

probability
CADENCE Methodology release
GAUGE FRAME
0 PUBLIC OBSERVATIONS · MISSING DATA IS NOT A ZERONO READING · 0 → 1.0SETTLEMENT BUNDLE NOT PROJECTED
UNITprobability
CADENCEMethodology release
SOURCEINTERNAL-METHOD
EPISTEMICSCENARIO
STRENGTHENS IFMacro migration and operational use strengthen.
WEAKENS IFPermissionless rails fail to gain durable use.
MVP TIERPhase 2
BOUND CLAIMS · 1
VAL-PROB-001Which probability branch did this evidence actually update?METHOD_REQUIRED
N · NUMERIC LENS — DEFINITION, DIRECTION, HISTORY
✓ CLAIMS 7e655a43… · AS OF 2026-08-02