Have the Two Dials crossed into migration? — THE DESK

R02 · JUNCTION · LAYER 6 OF 15 (DERIVED)Macro Migration

Have people actually started leaving?

BLOCKED

☐ WATCH THIS CLAIM PINS IT TO YOUR LANDING STRIP · STATES ONLY — STORED IN YOUR BROWSER

REGISTERED STRUCTURE · DRAWN FROM THE FROZEN FILES

THE REGISTERED QUESTION

Have the Two Dials crossed into migration?

LEVEL Gate · CONFIDENCE NOT_ASSESSED · DEFINITION DEFINED

FALSIFIABLE CLAIM

Periods and populations in the high-Cost-of-Staying/low-Exit-Friction cell will show more persistent routing outside default rails than the other three Two Dials cells after controlling for market prices and general technology adoption.

STRENGTHENS IF

Repeat operational routing, self-custody, cross-border settlement, or income dependence increases specifically in the predicted cell.

FRAMEWORK ANCHOR

Ch. 11, Two Dials 2×2 threshold matrix

REQUIRES: MAC-EXIT-004 METHOD_REQUIRED · MAC-STAY-005 METHOD_REQUIRED
FEEDS: REG-LEG-001 BLOCKED ↓ TRUNK · TSB-CORE-001 BLOCKED

GATED BY 0 BLOCKED ANCESTORS

MECHANISM · FROM THE BOOK · NOT MEASURED — B

OBJ-MONETARY-COMPETITION-FRAMEWORK · THE SUM-TOTAL COST TABLE OBJ-MONEY-UNDER-COMPETITION · MONOPOLY MONEY VERSUS MARKET MONEY

BOUND METRICS · 1

EACH CHIP NAMES THE METRIC’S REGISTERED EPISTEMIC CLASS — HOW IT WOULD BE READ, NOT A READING. ZERO READINGS EXIST YET.

M-MIG-STATETwo Dials migration stateINFERRED categorical state

ANSWER NO IF

Complaints rise but routing does not; experimentation remains optional; the interaction has no additional explanatory power.