R01 · JUNCTION · LAYER 15 OF 15 (DERIVED)Core Model
Has the Second Bitcoin arrived?
BLOCKED
THE REGISTERED QUESTION
Is monetary demand beginning to reroute and consolidate around a second sovereign rail?
LEVEL Root · CONFIDENCE NOT_ASSESSED · DEFINITION DEFINED
FALSIFIABLE CLAIM
If the macro migration state is reached and Bitcoin fee regimes repeatedly bind, a measurable share of economically relevant demand will reroute to sovereign alternatives; if Litecoin uniquely retains and coordinates that flow, its settlement footprint and holding duration will rise before broad language and relative price fully reclassify it.
STRENGTHENS IF
Every upstream gate passes independently and in causal order.
FRAMEWORK ANCHOR
Act II Executive Summary; Constraint → Routing → Coordination
REQUIRES: BTC-LIM-005 BLOCKED · LTC-SECOND-001 BLOCKED · MAC-MIG-001 BLOCKED · REG-LEG-001 BLOCKED · SET-BOUNDS-001 METHOD_REQUIRED · VAL-RECLASS-001 BLOCKED
FEEDS: —
FEEDS: —
GATED BY 11 BLOCKED ANCESTORS
BLOCKING FRONTIER · 6
REG-LEG-001Is everyone seeing the same thing?BLOCKED
VAL-RECLASS-001Did behavior change, or just the price?BLOCKED
LTC-SECOND-001Has Litecoin become the second Bitcoin?BLOCKED
SET-BOUNDS-001How much can we honestly claim?METHOD_REQUIRED
MAC-MIG-001Have people actually started leaving?BLOCKED
BTC-LIM-005What do people do when it's too costly?BLOCKED
NEAREST LEVER · REG-LEG-001 — CLEARING IT DROPS THIS TO GATED BY 10
MECHANISM: OBJ-ACTIII-HORIZON · THE PARALLEL-SYSTEMS HORIZON · FROM THE BOOK · NOT MEASURED — B · WALK THE HORIZON →
BOUND METRICS · 0
MISSING DATA IS NOT A ZERO
ANSWER NO IF
High staying costs and low exit friction produce no routing; fee regimes are fully internalized; substitution scatters; Litecoin does not retain; settlement or holding does not rise.