R02 · JUNCTION · LAYER 3 OF 15 (DERIVED)Macro Migration
How does the bill reach people?
READY_UNSCORED
THE REGISTERED QUESTION
How is the bill actually reaching people?
LEVEL Intermediate · CONFIDENCE NOT_ASSESSED · DEFINITION DEFINED
FALSIFIABLE CLAIM
A higher obligation and carrying-cost state will be followed by enacted and implemented transmission through at least one measurable channel: taxation, monetary dilution, negative real returns, financial repression, capital controls, spending cuts, or restructuring.
STRENGTHENS IF
Implemented policy or observed purchasing-power transmission follows fiscal stress within the registered lag window.
FRAMEWORK ANCHOR
Ch. 11, pressure → conditionality → friction → rerouting
REQUIRES: MAC-STAY-001 READY_UNSCORED · MAC-STAY-002 READY_UNSCORED
FEEDS: MAC-STAY-004 READY_UNSCORED ↓ TRUNK · MAC-STAY-005 METHOD_REQUIRED
FEEDS: MAC-STAY-004 READY_UNSCORED ↓ TRUNK · MAC-STAY-005 METHOD_REQUIRED
GATED BY 0 BLOCKED ANCESTORS
MECHANISM · FROM THE BOOK · NOT MEASURED — B
OBJ-MONETARY-COMPETITION-FRAMEWORK · THE SUM-TOTAL COST TABLE
OBJ-MONEY-UNDER-COMPETITION · MONOPOLY MONEY VERSUS MARKET MONEY
BOUND METRICS · 8
M-STAY-ESSENTIAL-GAPEssential-cost inflation less wage growthESTIMATED percentage points
M-STAY-POLICY-TRANSMISSIONImplemented burden-channel evidenceFILTERED event score
M-STAY-PRIMARY-DEFICITPrimary deficit / GDPESTIMATED % of GDP
M-STAY-PRIMARY-DEFICIT-TTMPrimary deficit, trailing 12 monthsESTIMATED USD
M-STAY-REAL-DPI-PCReal disposable personal income per capita growthOBSERVED % YoY
M-STAY-REAL-SAFE-RATEEx-post real short Treasury returnESTIMATED %
M-STAY-TOTAL-DEFICITTotal deficit / GDPOBSERVED % of GDP
M-STAY-TOTAL-DEFICIT-TTMTotal deficit, trailing 12 monthsOBSERVED USD
ANSWER NO IF
Liabilities rise without realized transmission, while purchasing power, convertibility, services, and tax burdens remain durable.